Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 77661.590734 82036.484213 86414.874884 91122.435187 96037.609453 101014.996124 106433.246932
2025-12-21 70354.669964 77006.482353 83853.101849 91417.357761 99530.536394 107961.547845 117375.501503
2025-12-28 65995.376985 74282.432810 83001.428458 92839.058647 103610.019276 115024.188054 128014.249985
2026-01-04 62431.878007 71944.529142 82138.704608 93843.482418 106877.822033 120913.159801 137134.888962
2026-01-11 59314.373636 69784.662775 81187.652741 94481.230920 109503.564351 125903.344078 145109.442079
2026-01-18 56364.144378 67581.052607 79977.770231 94629.971776 111407.028136 129948.314837 151917.913614
2026-01-25 53843.435728 65695.734118 78972.536825 94863.365200 113277.554425 133854.735796 158494.447557
2026-02-01 51417.538659 63778.580971 77802.152030 94785.336592 114685.655621 137152.826689 164317.855362
2026-02-08 49701.916972 62595.927142 77396.052638 95513.747246 116959.904105 141398.646062 171207.507175
2026-02-15 47724.850799 61004.533802 76421.475903 95491.939433 118287.539234 144496.863869 176734.055089
2026-02-22 46632.432872 60419.158559 76590.723135 96783.992379 121134.964619 149357.501716 184331.476392
2026-03-01 45401.053572 59603.931109 76431.617955 97636.765615 123425.812712 153545.765910 191139.346769
2026-03-08 43781.434031 58265.408819 75604.472981 97659.531856 124715.781438 156564.124145 196604.966061
2026-03-15 42405.674175 57180.359030 75044.224665 97971.525676 126331.464060 159963.827981 202539.911623
2026-03-22 41704.853913 56912.745426 75467.518853 99475.885698 129395.697112 165116.398387 210616.520188
2026-03-29 40842.621261 56401.716166 75555.648905 100538.577279 131902.145159 169592.882069 217892.971928
2026-04-05 39853.805261 55689.072508 75356.667462 101213.264263 133908.811504 173453.833309 224430.237599
2026-04-12 38686.829891 54703.537785 74774.372049 101370.613523 135244.267453 176476.929916 229940.699747
2026-04-19 37622.480183 53816.322577 74285.312383 101617.509949 136670.853103 179602.538055 235582.510761
2026-04-26 36470.634886 52775.626793 73563.964717 101534.967639 137655.515995 182164.229275 240522.930357
2026-05-03 35736.587589 52269.152824 73516.258944 102305.487474 139717.996228 186075.648277 247166.283052
2026-05-10 34710.242306 51335.507637 72879.147173 102282.419829 140742.346042 188671.032611 252160.019314
2026-05-17 34293.229648 51217.188442 73307.659190 103649.022251 143561.976301 193549.508393 260064.314590